I had only been resting for 10-15 minutes, you know that kind of rest when your eyes are closed, your close to dreaming but still aware of what's going on in your environment. As I am laying in my bed, I hear my 3 Chihuahua's Enzo, GiGi and Guapo (I'm Italian, my wife is Mexican) going crazy, as they usually do when someone knocks on our front door (or sneezes, or belches, or a multitude of other things that catch the attention of these notorious yappers). My seemingly unwanted alarm clock. I initially remember thinking, it must be one of my boys' friends. Then I heard a male voice. No, maybe it is my wife's uncle. He lives a few blocks away and checks in with us every once in a while. And then, that little voice in my gut said, "something is not right" (I think that is God, you may have another opinion).
I get out of bed, slide into my fleece lined crocs (I love these crocs as they keep my feet warm at night when trading the London session) and head to the living room. My 9yr old son catches me in the hallway and says "My friend's (I won't be using names for obvious reasons) dad is here, the police are chasing him and I'm scared"........WHAT? I tell him to go into my bedroom and close the door.
What just happened to my world? We live in an established, middle class neighborhood, literally right across the street from my sons' grade school. Our community has very low crime, is extremely safe, kid's run the sidewalk in front of our house to the playground. Now I have an episode of Chicago Code (Great Show in a Great City) developing in my house. I go into my living room to find a man, I barely know, talking between his phone and my wife. Evidently, he kindly let himself in when he noticed our front door open. I introduce myself to him, shake his hand and ask him if I can help him. He is profusely sweating and speaking with some fear in his voice. He says he needs a ride to the bus station. I tell him I may be able to help him and then I ask him, "What is going on here"?
I start to see marked and unmarked police cars speeding up and down my road, as well as circling in the grade school parking lot. I point out to him that there are multiple police outside. He asks me to talk to his wife on the phone, "She can explain it all". My response is, "Listen, I am a minister, how can I pray for YOU, what can I help YOU with"? He asks to use my bathroom, I show him where it is and when he goes in, I rush back to my living room and say to my wife, "Get the kids and get the hell out of the house, I don't know where this is going".
It was almost as if time had stopped. Immediately after saying this, I cannot believe this combination of words has come out of my mouth. He emerges from my bathroom. I know he just flushed something down my toilet.
He says he needs a ride to the bus station, I tell him, "I can probably help with that, I just need to get my keys". At this point I am just stalling as the number of police, only 50 feet outside my big picture window, are starting to grow and they don't know he is in here. I tell him, "Listen, there are cops everywhere outside, I am not sure what I can do for you, but you need to tell me what's going on here and you need to leave my house". My wife chimes in "We are not aiding and abetting you" (she is a strong, courageous Mexican woman). He says, "They are gonna send me to jail, I have a warrant out for a domestic". My wife says, "You need to go outside and fess up".....and he did.
As we exit my front door together, someone shouts "HERE HE IS" and they sprint to my front door. My wife stops them and says, he hasn't done anything to hurt us, he is giving himself up.
"GET DOWN ON THE GROUND", I don't know if they are talking to all of us or just this fugitive. I say "This is our house, I work overnight and I was just napping, I really don't know what is going on here".
So this is the picture, there is 8 marked and un-marked police cars that have descended in my driveway, in front of my house, in the neighbors driveway, plus 10-12 plain clothed and uniformed police officers all over my front yard, neighbors mulling around wondering why this scene has materialized in my front yard......A real scene from Cops..................Bad Boys, Bad Boys, Watcha gonna do!
The Police take a short statement and confirm to us that they were trying to serve him with a warrant. He ran out the back door and through backyards. He was avoiding taking his loss like Nick Leeson running from Barings Bank, it's not a loss till you realize it, right?
So, why do I bring up this story. Well, it is an entertaining situation, after the fact. It also lends itself directly to trading and one of the single most important traits of a professional trader. Making quick decisions, under stressful situations, with little to no time to fully process all of the factors, all while keeping your cool and not putting your hand through a screen or breaking your keyboard.
This whole situation occurred in 2-3 minutes. Within 3 minutes, I go from napping to managing a situation that involves a man in my house, visibly panicked, police circling and my most important asset exposed, my family.
As traders, we are constantly put in stressful situations that require quick decisions (earthquakes, tsunami's, the mornings of Bear and Lehman, the first TARP vote by US Politicians) that involve major risk and reward consequences.
I made the decision to fade the move. I didn't know all the facts 1) why is he here? 2) who is he? 3) is he dangerous? 4) what was his crime? 5) did he have a weapon? 6) was he desparate? I could manage the heat, I didn't feel threatened, but I needed to stall and give myself more time and wait for a calculated "revert to the mean".
I hedged my loss by getting the kids out of the situation, the unknowns were just too risky. I relied on my faith to provide the wisdom to calmly, but sternly, talk to this man, who was obviously hurting, while not agitating the situation. I attribute my inner peace to my faith and all of the trials and tribulations I have endured and conquered as a trader with 10 years of experience trading through crisis (Nasdaq Tech bubble, 9/11, $140 Oil, Credit Crisis).
Although I consider this a winning trade, their is always unintended losses, trading is a zero-sum-game. I may have won this battle, but I feel horrible for my son's grade school friend. He is a genuinely good kid and he is invited to our house because we know his family background. He definitely losses with an unstable father in-and-out of jail. My 9yr old is asking if this man will come back and try to hurt us because we got him arrested. My son losses because a part of his innocence was just stolen from him. These are the unintended consequences that this man didn't even consider while running from his trade.
I am extremely thankful for my wife and my 3 Chihuahua's. There yapping is usually viewed as a nuisance, Thursday it acted as an alarm clock and tornado warning.
Thanks Enzo
Be Blessed,
Hemi
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